There is a new category of technical analysis available for trading the FOREX markets. It is called Shift Theory and this new technique is based on Shift Ratios that break down the three main types of chart conditions:
- Choppy Markets
- Up Trending Markets
- Down Trending Markets
What Shift Theory Ratios do is focus on the important data and ignores the data that is responsible for false signals and noise. The Shift Theory trading approach works better than any other form of technical analysis because it focuses on the science of price analysis. Most technical analysis today focuses on the closing price as the main piece of data that is analyzed. The main issue with that is the closing price is a moving target. A lot traders don't realize that indicators are nothing more than measuring tools and they need to be treated that way. When it comes to measuring price you need stable data to get an accurate reading. I like to use an example of trying the weigh yourself on a scale. If you keep jumping around while you try to weigh yourself then it is almost imposable to get an accurate reading. That is exactly what the closing price does. It changes every time there is an uptick or down tick and that changes the reading of most indicators and that results in a lot of noise and false trading signals.
The Shift Trading Ratios rely on the undeniable facts of market trends. Some examples are:
- Prices on a chart can only go higher if they make a new high.
- Prices on a chart can only go lower if they make a new low.
- Choppy markets have bars that have a high percentage of overlap.
As a trader the Shift Theory Ratios are excellent tool to keep traders disciplined and sticking to sound trading principles. As a example we will cover the reading and indications Shift Ratios give in 3 types of market conditions:
- Up Trending
- Down trending
When market conditions are choppy the Inside Shift Ratio is the plot that measures that type of market condition. What the Inside Shift Ratio does is measure the current bar percentage that is overlapping the previous bar. All choppy markets have a high percentage of bars that overlap each other. It is easy to see on a chart but most indicators simply cannot measure these types of condition because they are based on the closing price.
If the market is up trending then the Upper Shift Ratio is the indicator that measures that type of price change. In up trending markets the bars on a chart should be making higher highs and that is a undeniable fact about upward moving markets.
During down markets the Lower Shift Ratio is the indicator that measures the strength of the down trend. This again is based on the undeniable fact that downward markets must make lower lows in order to go lower.
In the end these techniques work and the proof is in the back testing. A dirty secret many indicators have is they really don't work and that is why nobody is willing to show any back testing results. So if you want to find the best FOREX trading indicator then you need to take a look at the Shift Theory Ratios. If you want consistent and proven results then as a traders you must focus on the important data and ignore the data that is responsible for signal noise and lag.
Source by David Zielinski
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